Evaluation and Trend Prediction of the Development Status of the Gear Industry in 2023

2023-08-2565

Part 1: Overview of Global and Chinese Gear Markets

1.1 Global Gear Market Size
According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the global gear market size in 2022 is approximately 1311.2 billion yuan (RMB), and it is expected to reach 1707.7 billion yuan in 2029. The annual compound growth rate (CAGR) for the period from 2023 to 2029 is 3.8%.

1.2 Global Gear Market Structure
According to product usage, gears can be subdivided into vehicle gears, industrial gears, and gear specific equipment. Among them, vehicle gears are the largest segmented market, accounting for nearly 60% of the global gear market share. Vehicle gears are mainly used in transmission, differential, and other components of vehicles such as automobiles, motorcycles, and bicycles. Industrial gears are the second largest segmented market, accounting for approximately 30% of the global gear market. Industrial gears are mainly used in the transmission systems of heavy-duty equipment such as wind turbines, mining machinery, metallurgical machinery, and cement machinery. Gear specialized equipment is the smallest niche market, accounting for approximately 10% of the global gear market. Gear specialized equipment mainly includes gear processing machines, gear testing instruments, gear lubricating oil, etc.
According to product type, gears can be subdivided into spur gears, helical gears, bevel gears, worm gears, gear carriers, etc. Among them, spur gear is the most common type of gear, which has advantages such as simple structure, easy manufacturing, and low cost, but also has disadvantages such as high transmission noise and low load-bearing capacity. Helical gears are formed by tilting the tooth surface at a certain angle on the basis of spur gears. They have the advantages of smooth transmission, low noise, and high load-bearing capacity, but also have the disadvantages of complex manufacturing and high cost. Bevel gears are used for transmission between two intersecting or inclined shafts, with advantages such as high transmission efficiency and compact structure. However, they also have disadvantages such as difficulty in manufacturing and adjustment. Worm gear is a special type of spiral bevel gear used for transmission between two vertically intersecting shafts. It has advantages such as high transmission ratio and good self-locking, but also has disadvantages such as high friction loss and excessive heat generation. Gear carrier is a special type of gear with linear motion, which is used in conjunction with cylindrical gears and has advantages such as simple structure and precise transmission. However, it also has disadvantages such as limited transmission length and insufficient stiffness.
According to geographical distribution, the global gear market is mainly concentrated in the Asia Pacific region, Europe, and North America. Among them, the Asia Pacific region is the world's largest gear market, accounting for approximately 50% of the market share, mainly benefiting from the rapid development and huge demand of countries such as China, Japan, and India. Europe and North America respectively hold about 20% and 15% of the market share, mainly relying on their advanced technology and competitive advantages of high-end products in the international market. Other regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa have a relatively small market share, mainly constrained by their level of economic development and market size.

1.3 Global Gear Market Competition Pattern
The global gear market competition pattern is relatively scattered, without forming absolute monopolies or oligopolies. The top five global manufacturers have a market share of over 30%. Among them, Toyota is the world's largest gear manufacturer, mainly producing components such as transmissions and differentials for automobiles, with a market share of about 10%. Volkswagen is the world's second largest gear manufacturer and mainly produces components such as transmissions and differentials for automobiles, with a market share of approximately 8%. General Motors, Ford, and Daimler respectively account for

1.4 Scale of China's Gear Market

According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the output value of China's gear industry has increased from 220.5 billion yuan in 2016 to 314.3 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.9%. In 2022, the output value of China's gear industry reached 326.9 billion yuan. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of gears, accounting for nearly 40% of the global gear market share. The shift of China's gear industry from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage has prompted the gear industry to transform its economic development mode, optimize its industrial structure, and transform its growth momentum.

 

1.5 Structure of China's Gear Market

According to product usage, the structure of the Chinese gear market is basically consistent with the global market, with vehicle gears being the largest segmented market, accounting for nearly 60% of the Chinese gear market share. Industrial gears are the second largest segmented market, accounting for approximately 30% of the Chinese gear market. Gear specialized equipment is the smallest segmented market, accounting for about 10% of the Chinese gear market share.

According to product types, the structure of the Chinese gear market is also basically consistent with the global market, with spur gears being the most common type of gear, accounting for nearly 50% of the Chinese gear market share. Helical gears are the second most common type of gear, accounting for approximately 25% of the Chinese gear market. Bevel gears, worm gears, gear carriers, and other types of gears respectively account for about 10%, 10%, and 5% of the Chinese gear market.

According to regional distribution, the Chinese gear market is mainly concentrated in the East China region, North China region, and South China region. Among them, the East China region is the largest gear production and consumption region in China, accounting for nearly 40% of the Chinese gear market share, mainly benefiting from the economic development and industrial demand of provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. The North China region is the second largest gear production and consumption region in China, accounting for about 25% of the Chinese gear market, mainly benefiting from the automobile manufacturing and heavy equipment manufacturing in provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei. The South China region is the third largest gear production and consumption region in China, accounting for about 15% of the Chinese gear market share, mainly benefiting from electronic manufacturing and light industry manufacturing in provinces and cities such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian. Other regions such as the Northwest, Southwest, Northeast, and Central China have a relatively small market share, mainly constrained by their economic development level and market size.

 

1.6 Competitive Landscape of China's Gear Market

The competition pattern in the Chinese gear market is more dispersed, without forming a clear monopoly or oligopoly. The top five Chinese manufacturers have less than 10% market share. Among them, Shaanxi Fast Gear is the largest gear manufacturer in China, mainly producing components such as transmissions and differentials for automobiles, with a market share of about 3%. The other four major manufacturers are China Shipbuilding Heavy Industries (CHSTE), ZF Friedrichshafen, Aisin Seiki, and David Brown, each with a market share of approximately 1%. They also mainly produce components such as transmissions and differentials for automobiles.

In addition to these manufacturers, there are many other manufacturers in the Chinese gear market, mainly including Nanjing High Accurate, Chongqing Machinery&Electric, Hangzhou Advance, Jiangsu Yaxing, Shanghai High Tech, etc. These manufacturers mainly produce industrial gears or gear specific equipment, or have strong competitiveness in certain segmented markets.

Part 2: Global and Chinese Gear Market Development Trends

2.1 Global Gear Market Development Trends
The global gear market will exhibit the following development trends in the next few years:
(1) Innovation driven. The independent innovation capability of the gear industry is still weak, and high-end gear products heavily rely on imports, becoming the main problem restricting the development of the industry. The traditional extensive economic growth mode that relies on cost advantages to occupy the market will gradually be challenged, and innovation and technological advantages will become industry leading. In the future, gear products will be driven by innovation, with high precision, high reliability, long life, and high power density product characteristics as the basic foothold. Gear transmission will develop towards electric transmission, electromechanical transmission, and electromechanical hydraulic control composite transmission, and the industry will move towards the goal of digitalization, intelligence, and electrification manufacturing.

(2) Structural optimization. Faced with the rapidly changing international situation, the global gear industry needs to seize major opportunities, accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic major circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other, and create a complete industrial chain. To promote the structural adjustment of the gear industry, large enterprises should rely on their scale and technological advantages, become bigger and stronger, and enter the forefront of the world. Small and medium-sized enterprises should be cultivated into specialized, refined, and new "small giants"; Improve industrial concentration, form several industrial clusters with strong international competitiveness, and promote industrial upgrading; Meanwhile, with the implementation of national policies on energy conservation, emission reduction, and green manufacturing industries, the concept of "green environmental protection" will permeate the entire industry.

(3) Diversified development. In the trend of modernization and large-scale development in the mechanical industry, downstream end customers' requirements for the performance, production efficiency, and other aspects of mechanical equipment are constantly developing towards differentiation and customization. Single functional mechanical equipment will be difficult to meet the transformation and upgrading of global industry, and the market will tend to choose multi-functional and personalized mechanical equipment. As a mechanical supporting industry, the gear industry has built a good platform for industry enterprises to engage in healthy competition through product diversification and market segmentation. The market dispersion and professionalism will continue to improve. Against the backdrop of rigid market demand and upgrading of supply side structure, gear products are developing towards diversification and will usher in new economic growth points.

2.2 Development Trends of China's Gear Market
The Chinese gear market will exhibit the following development trends in the next few years:
(1) Innovation driven. The independent innovation capability of China's gear industry is still weak, and high-end gear products heavily rely on imports, becoming the main problem restricting the development of the industry. The traditional extensive economic growth mode that relies on cost advantages to occupy the market will gradually be challenged, and innovation and technological advantages will become industry leading. In the future, gear products will be driven by innovation, with high precision, high reliability, long life, and high power density product characteristics as the basic foothold. Gear transmission will develop towards electric transmission, electromechanical transmission, and electromechanical hydraulic control composite transmission, and the industry will move towards the goal of digitalization, intelligence, and electrification manufacturing.

(2) Structural optimization. Faced with the rapidly changing international situation, the Chinese gear industry needs to seize major opportunities, accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other, and create a complete industrial chain. To promote the structural adjustment of the gear industry, large enterprises should rely on their scale and technological advantages, become bigger and stronger, and enter the forefront of the world. Small and medium-sized enterprises should be cultivated into specialized, refined, and new "small giants"; Improve industrial concentration, form several industrial clusters with strong international competitiveness, and promote industrial upgrading; Meanwhile, with the implementation of national policies on energy conservation, emission reduction, and green manufacturing industries, the concept of "green environmental protection" will permeate the entire industry.

(3) Diversified development. In the trend of modernization and large-scale development in the mechanical industry, downstream end customers' requirements for the performance, production efficiency, and other aspects of mechanical equipment are constantly developing towards differentiation and customization. Single functional mechanical equipment will be difficult to meet the transformation and upgrading of Chinese industry, and the market will tend to choose multi-functional and personalized mechanical equipment. As a mechanical supporting industry, the gear industry has built a good platform for industry enterprises to engage in healthy competition through product diversification and market segmentation. The market dispersion and professionalism will continue to improve. Against the backdrop of rigid market demand and upgrading of supply side structure, gear products are developing towards diversification and will usher in new economic growth points.

Part 3: Shangpu Consulting Group's Evaluation and Suggestions on the Gear Industry

According to data from Shangpu Consulting Group, the gear industry is the largest industry among mechanical basic components, which is basically consistent with the development trend of the national economy. The gear industry has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage, promoting the transformation of its economic development mode, optimization of industrial structure, and transformation of growth momentum. Shangpu Consulting Group believes that the gear industry is facing new opportunities and challenges, which require strengthening independent innovation capabilities, improving product quality and technological level, optimizing industrial structure and layout, increasing industrial concentration and green environmental protection level, exploring multi-functional and diversified segmented markets, and enhancing international competitiveness. Shangpu Consulting Group puts forward the following suggestions for the gear industry:
(1) Strengthen investment in technological innovation and enhance core competitiveness. The gear industry should increase investment in scientific and technological innovation, strengthen cooperation with universities, research institutes, industry associations, and other institutions, and establish an integrated innovation system of industry, academia, research, and application. The gear industry should attach importance to basic and applied research, break through the bottleneck of key technologies and core equipment, and improve product quality and technical level. The gear industry should strengthen the protection and application of intellectual property rights, form independent brands and patented technologies, and enhance core competitiveness.

(2) Optimize industrial structure and layout, and increase industrial concentration. The gear industry needs to optimize product structure and layout, adjust product proportion and regional distribution according to market demand and national strategic direction. The gear industry should accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity and low-end products, and develop high-end products and emerging fields. The gear industry should promote enterprise mergers and acquisitions and cross regional cooperation, form several industrial clusters with strong international competitiveness, and improve industrial concentration.

(3) Expand multi-functional and diversified segmented markets to enhance market competitiveness. The gear industry should develop multifunctional and personalized products and services based on the different needs and characteristics of downstream customers. The gear industry should actively explore the application needs and market space of emerging fields such as wind power generation, electric vehicles, industrial robots, etc. The gear industry should strengthen market research and analysis, timely grasp market dynamics and changes, formulate reasonable market strategies and marketing plans, and enhance market competitiveness.

(4) Improve the level of green environmental protection and achieve sustainable development. The gear industry should actively respond to national policies on energy conservation, emission reduction, and green manufacturing industries, and improve the level of green environmental protection. The gear industry should strengthen the research and application of energy-saving technologies, reduce energy consumption and emissions, and improve energy utilization efficiency. The gear industry should strengthen the research and application of environmental protection technologies, reduce the generation and emission of pollutants, and improve the level of environmental protection. The gear industry should strengthen the concept and practice of circular economy, promote the recycling and utilization of waste gears, extend product life, and achieve sustainable development.

 

E-Mail:
yhl888@yyld.com

 

Telephone:
+86 574 62913081